The one I can correct immediately is the less is more policy. There is no way I should have bet on 5 hockey games last night. This is entirely way too many. From here on out my maximum will be 3. My thinking is that if I only bet 3 at most then the top value picks will rise to the top.
The second issue that I'm hoping will improve with time is that its a young season and we are just getting to know these teams. For example Colorado and Calgary are better then advertised, while Washington has issues. I need to let the season bake in a little to get a better feel for where these teams are at.
My record to date:
|Last 90 Days
How about some props for hitting all 4 teasers on Giants/Bears? It saved me from getting killed last night. Giants win next week, mark it down.
On to the picks.
Penguins (-195) @ Panthers: Florida lost to Tampa last night and the Penguins are playing really good hockey right now.
The Blackhawks are at home and normally I'd bet them but they are facing a tough Islander team so I'm laying off.
Missouri @ Georgia OU (64.5): I don't have an opinion on this game since Georgia is banged up and has a leaky defense while Missouri can score but their defense has not been tested. So the over is going into a 4-team teaser.
Oklahoma (-13.5) vs. Texas: Another chapter in the Red Rivalry Shootout will take place tomorrow against two teams that are going in opposite directions. We all know Mac Brown is done after this year so his players will do one of two things in this game. Play inspired football or lay down. Either way Texas loses. I don't like rivalry games so I will pass.
Pitt @ Va Tech (-8): I lover this game. I'm usually a skeptic when it comes to VT but since their first week lose to Alabama they have reeled off 5 straight and is looking to keep it's first place hold in the Coastal division with it's 11th ranked defense in points against. Pitt on the other hand got killed by FSU the first week and hasn't played anyone since. They are coming off the worst performance for an offensive line and now have to face one of the most talented ones in the country. Look for a repeat of what happened in the FSU game. I like VT to cover and I like them more in a teaser.
Iowa St @ Texas Tech (-14): Not touching this game. Iowa St is going to play angry while Tech has issues at quarterback. Pass.
South Carolina (-5) @ Arkansas: I'm not liking what's going on over at SC this year with Clowney. He has become bigger than the program and it seems the ole ball coach has lost a bit of control, feels like the tail is wagging the dog here and we still don't know if Clowney plays and how effective he will be. This has upset written all over it. Pass.
Florida @ LSU (-7): What to do with the Gators? I'm a homer so this game does have more significance than any other. We have the nations best defense going up against one of the top offenses. My how times have changed! If this were in the swamp I'd take the Gators but Death Valley is a tough place to play even in the day time for a rookie quarterback. The Gator D keeps it close but LSU scores the go ahead field goal to win a heart-breaker.
BC @ Clemson (-24): We saw a like spread when BC played FSU and I was all over BC and they covered. I see a similar situation here. Clemson might be looking ahead just a little bit to next weeks tilt with FSU plus their one weakness is defending against the run. BC can flat out run the ball and that is what they will do to try and slow down Clemson's offense and get the game in the 4th quarter. There is real value in taking BC but I'm laying off.
Northwestern @ Wisconsin (-10): Not sure how NW responds to giving up 20 points in the 4th quarter to a team that was primarily running the ball...isn't that what the Badgers do? Run the ball. Pass.
Baylor (-17.5) @ Kansas St.: Okay, okay, okay. Baylor is legit...and fast, and not bad on defense, and fast. I like Baylor here in a 4-team teaser. K St. will be ready for them on defense but still won't be able to muster up enough offense to get within one score.
Oregon (-13.5) @ Washington: Oregon can score no doubt but who have they really played? Washington is tested and playing at home, the Ducks will be tested here. I see value taking the points and if you can get it at 14 pounce. Gotta love the inter-conference home dog.
Michigan (-2.5) @ Penn ST.: I can't figure this spread out. We have a Penn St team that is 3-2 who really hasn't played anyone vs a Michigan team that has been tested in close games and looked great last week. The only thing I can think of is that the public doesn't put much stock in Michigan's record because of those two close games but I just can see why anyone would back Penn St regardless if they are playing at home. The sharps are split on this game, but I'm going with my gut here and taking Michigan on the ML at (-136)
Akron @ NIU (-23.5): Big spread here, and you know I'm not a fan of laying all those points, but Akron is pretty horrible. The public is all over this one since it opened at -21 and got as high as -24 before settling at 23.5 NIU probably covers but will pass.
Stanford (-7.5) @ Utah: If UCLA can cover I have to believe that Stanford can as well. It did take 6 interceptions by Utah for UCLA to win but Stanford is much better than UCLA and much more physical in the trenches. The ML is at -310 and that is what I'm going with.
Alabama (-27) @ Kentucky: Big spread on the road for the number one team in the country. If Bama had a better defense then I would be comfortable laying 27 but I can just see Saban resting his starters and a garbage touchdown blows it up. They could be a nice play in a 4-team teaser but you are still looking at two scores. There are better teams to do this with. Pass.
Texas AM (-6) @ Ole Miss: This is another spread that made me scratch my head. I know A&M is on the road but give me Johnny Football under a touchdown and I will take it anywhere. The ML is even better at -229 Texas A&M easily wins and most likely covers. Whats more interesting is the OU at 76. Wow that's high!
California @ UCLA (-25): This is a juicy game. UCLA has had a couple of days extra rest and is playing at host to a decimated Cal team on defense. Cal will score some points but will not be able to keep up. Look for a shootout here that UCLA probably covers. I'm putting them in a 4-team teaser for good measure.
Here are the picks:
Boise St (-6.5) @ Utah: Utah's QB is out for the season. Look for Boise St to take advantage.
Stanford ML (-310)
Texas A&M ML (-229)
Michigan ML (-136)
8 point teaser:
Nebraska (-6.5) @ Purdue: Nebraska runs wild over Purdue's leaky defense.
4 team teaser:
Missouri\Georgia over (51.5)
TCU at home vs Kansas (11.5) TCU gets some nice home cooking and blows out the Jayhawks.