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Sunday, October 6, 2013

Post-Mortem

Well sports fans it was a disappointing Saturday in the pursuit for 60%. The Gamecocks gave up 21 4th quarter points to blow up one of my 4 team teasers, ASU couldn't overcome the luck of the Irish, Maryland flat out didn't show up and West Virginia came within a couple of points from covering 28.5!

All in all a 6-5 record for college which isn't going to get it done. My mistake this week was not following the less is more rule. Playing 10 bets on Saturday was way too many. I should have trimmed it down to no more than 6. I will be sure to remember this next week.

Below is my record to date:


Today0000%$0
Yesterday55050.0%-$1.14
Last Week118057.9%$0.66
Last Month2118053.9%-$1.51
Last 90 Days2223048.9%-$10.38
Last Year3793431452.5%-$22.17
Lifetime11839725054.9%-$55.17
Best Streak13676464.0%$34.52


I don't like many games in the NFL at all this week. This is probably a good thing since I'm going to follow the less is more rule here. We have a few home dogs and some really good match-ups that could go either way and parity I believe will show up again. I would love to break down every game for you guys but I just can't do it...instead Ill have some quick thoughts for each game and then my picks at the bottom.

Chiefs (-2.5) @ Titans: Too many question marks here. Are the Chiefs for real? How will they hold up against a formidable defense? How hurt is Jake Locker? If the Chiefs were at home I might take them but on the road I pass.

Ravens (+2.5) @ Dolphins: I do love the Ravens getting points but I don't like them on the road. I put them in a teaser last week and they barley covered while losing to the Bills. The Dolphins have a better defense than the Bills so it's up to Falco...I can not trust Falco right now. Pass.

Jags (+11) @ Rams: A lot of people are on the Jags this week since the Rams are 0-4 ATS. But I don't trust either one of these teams. Pass.

Pats (-1) @ Bengals: The Pats have been good to me so far however they are on the road against a very good defense. However Cincy's offense has sputtered recently. We know the Pats can score and this year's team plays defense. I like the Pats in a teaser.

Seahawks (-3) @ Colts: Another good team on the road. The Seahawks are a complete team and can defiantly hang with any AFC team however road favorites are not my cup of tea. Pass

Lions (+7) @ Packers: Rodgers is 5-0 ATS coming off bye weeks. But the Lions are a different team this year.  I can't trust either defense in this one. I'm teasing the over at (53.5).

Saints (-1) @ Bears: I'm going to this game so I have to bet on it. I like the Saints offense against a banged up Bears defense and Jay Cutler will always be Jay Cutler. Teasing the Saints.

Eagles (+2) @ Giants: In the past this used to be one of those knock down drag out NFC East low scoring match-ups. But this year...not so much. Can the Giants get any worse? Can the Eagles play defense? The answer to both these questions is no. Giants make this game competitive and if they win and the Cowboys lose they will only be one game back in the East! I'm teasing the over.

Panthers (-2) @ Cards: The cards are decent at home but the Panthers are coming off a bye. This game could go either way including over under. It's best to just pass.

Chargers (-4.5) @ Raiders: This game has been moved to 8:35 PT! I'm certainly not staying up to watch it. The Raiders are banged up with Run DMC's status listed as doubtful. We saw what happened last week when the Raiders didn't have a running game against the worst defense in the NFL, they got shut out in the second half. The Chargers are rolling and have beaten the Raiders in Oakland many times. Pryor's return does not scare me at all, look for the Chargers to drop back in coverage and dare the Raiders to beat them with a banged up backfield. Lay the points with confidence.

Broncos (-7) @ Cowboys: Is it time to start fading the Broncos as they keep crushing the spread every week? I can't answer that. What I can say is that either one of these teams plays good defense and with Peyton Manning at the helm you know points will be scored. I love the over at (56.5).

Texans (+5.5) @ 49ers: Which 49er team will shoe up in this game? The one that blew up the Rams or the one that got destroyed by the Seahawks and the Colts? It seems that when the 49ers can run the ball they have success, that doesn't bode well going up against a Texans team that has a chip on their shoulder for letting the Seattle game get away. I will pass.

 Jets (+9.5) @ Falcons: I love Matt Ryan at home against a Jets team that cannot move the ball. Even if the Jets find some offense, the Falcons offense is better. I'm putting the Falcons in a teaser.


Here are my picks:

Chargers -4.5

7 point teaser:
Saints (+6) Pats (+6)

13 point 4-team teaser:
Falcons +3.5
Broncos/Cowboys over (43.5)
Eagles/Giants over ( 40.5)
Lions/Packers over (40.5)

Good luck all!

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