Documented Results as of May 11, 2015


Monday, November 4, 2013

Today's Line - Dealing with Variance

Magic Number to 55% - 10
Magic Number to 60% - 299

Record to date:

Last Week1513053.6%-$0.85
Last Month8375152.5%-$6.64
Last 90 Days10093151.8%-$15.88
Last Year4414031552.3%-$28.62

Find me on Twitter - Sports Bettor@letsget60

Hi sports fans. Another day another sub 60%. This is getting ridiculous, ever since I bragged about my 1-3-5 system and going 12-4 I have gone 5-9. This is unacceptable. While I can only blame myself for breaking a couple of rules, (betting on a hockey team that's on their second game of a back-to-back (Blackhawks), and betting on shitty teams (Ravens and the Arizona Wildcats)). 

I'm also dealing with variance. Variance is a term used to describe elements of the game that are out of your control. For instance the offensive surge of the Celtics and the Clippers the only time I bet them in the under, Seattle's overtime win at home versus an 0-7 team, and the inconsistent play of Illinois (getting rolled by MSU but playing Penn St to overtime).

Variance shows it ugly head in poker as well. Simply if you have pocket aces and someone goes all-in pre-flop then you must call. Win or lose it was the right play, and if you are faced with the same decision or any decision where the odds are in your favor you must act in the same way because in the long run you will come out ahead.

What's more important is how we deal with variance. Looking at the three bets I just mentioned, the under in the Celtics and Clippers game and the Penn St loss. I'd make those same bets again because they are solid bets the odds were in my favor. Changing they way you play or bet is the wrong way to deal with variance. One must stay confident in their ability to pick off bluffs, or pick winners knowing that in the long run you will be profitable. With that said here are tonight's picks.


2 team teaser:

GB (-3) and the over (44): Chicago is going into Green Bay with a backup quarterback and a porous defense. The Bears will put up some points but not at the same rate as a scary balanced Green Bay offense.


Warriors @ 76ers over (212): The 76ers are the feel good team of the NBA reeling off 3 straight wins including Miami and Chicago. They welcome the Warriors who should give them a run for their money. Both of these teams are in the top 5 in scoring and the bottom 5 in defense. I see a high scoring game as both teams will run and try to score in transition any chance they get.

Going against one of my trend watches here...

Rockets (+5) @ Clippers: The Rockets are 2-0-1 ATS so far and they are getting 5 from the Clippers. I like Houston's size advantage over the Clippers in this one giving Griffen and DJ lots of problems down low. Houston has had great success at LA, going 15-4 ATS in the last 19 trips to play the Clippers. Have the bookies figured out Houston yet? We will see...

Keep An Eye On:

The Lowest Under:

Came through last night. Tonight it involves the Celtics again but they are playing the Grizzles who score and allow over 100 points. I don't like it.

Fading Houston:

Going against it tonight.

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Documented Results as of May 11, 2015