Documented Results as of July 20th 2018

Upcoming Picks

Futures

CFB:
Win 2019 Heisman Trophy - Jalen Hurts +650
Win 2019 Heisman Trophy - Tua Tagovailoa +500
Win 2019 Heisman Trophy - Trevor Lawrence +350

Alabama 11 wins OVER
Baylor 7 wins OVER
Florida 9 wins OVER
Georgia 10.5 wins OVER
Illinois 3.5 wins OVER
LSU 8.5 wins OVER
Michigan 9.5 wins OVER
Notre Dame 9.5 wins OVER
Ohio St 10 wins OVER
Nebraska 8 wins OVER
Oregon 8.5 wins OVER
Sparty 7 wins OVER
Utah 8.5 wins OVER





NFL:

Reach AFC Conference Final - Kansas City Chiefs +160
Reach AFC Conference Final - Jacksonville Jaguars +625
Reach NFC Conference Final - New Orleans Saints +215
Reach NFC Conference Final - Chicago Bears +365


Cleveland Browns win AFC North +120
Jacksonville Jaguars win AFC South +350
Los Angeles Chargers win AFC West +280
Philadelphia Eagles win NFC East +105
Chicago Bears win NFC North +175
Carolina Panthers win NFC South +775
Seattle Seahawks win NFC West +280


CHI regular season wins over 9½ +105
CLE regular season wins over 9 -130
DAL regular season wins over 8½ -130
GB regular season wins over 9½ +105
JAX regular season wins over 8 -115
KC regular season wins over 10½ -115
LAR regular season wins over 10½ -105
NOR regular season wins over 10½ +105
PIT regular season wins under 8½ +120
SEA regular season wins over 8½ -115


New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl +975

Monday, November 4, 2013

Today's Line - Dealing with Variance

Magic Number to 55% - 10
Magic Number to 60% - 299

Record to date:

Yesterday13025.0%-$2.31
Last Week1513053.6%-$0.85
Last Month8375152.5%-$6.64
Last 90 Days10093151.8%-$15.88
Last Year4414031552.3%-$28.62
Lifetime126110425154.8%-$60.67

Find me on Twitter - Sports Bettor@letsget60



Hi sports fans. Another day another sub 60%. This is getting ridiculous, ever since I bragged about my 1-3-5 system and going 12-4 I have gone 5-9. This is unacceptable. While I can only blame myself for breaking a couple of rules, (betting on a hockey team that's on their second game of a back-to-back (Blackhawks), and betting on shitty teams (Ravens and the Arizona Wildcats)). 

I'm also dealing with variance. Variance is a term used to describe elements of the game that are out of your control. For instance the offensive surge of the Celtics and the Clippers the only time I bet them in the under, Seattle's overtime win at home versus an 0-7 team, and the inconsistent play of Illinois (getting rolled by MSU but playing Penn St to overtime).


Variance shows it ugly head in poker as well. Simply if you have pocket aces and someone goes all-in pre-flop then you must call. Win or lose it was the right play, and if you are faced with the same decision or any decision where the odds are in your favor you must act in the same way because in the long run you will come out ahead.


What's more important is how we deal with variance. Looking at the three bets I just mentioned, the under in the Celtics and Clippers game and the Penn St loss. I'd make those same bets again because they are solid bets the odds were in my favor. Changing they way you play or bet is the wrong way to deal with variance. One must stay confident in their ability to pick off bluffs, or pick winners knowing that in the long run you will be profitable. With that said here are tonight's picks.


NFL:


2 team teaser:


GB (-3) and the over (44): Chicago is going into Green Bay with a backup quarterback and a porous defense. The Bears will put up some points but not at the same rate as a scary balanced Green Bay offense.


NBA:


Warriors @ 76ers over (212): The 76ers are the feel good team of the NBA reeling off 3 straight wins including Miami and Chicago. They welcome the Warriors who should give them a run for their money. Both of these teams are in the top 5 in scoring and the bottom 5 in defense. I see a high scoring game as both teams will run and try to score in transition any chance they get.


Going against one of my trend watches here...


Rockets (+5) @ Clippers: The Rockets are 2-0-1 ATS so far and they are getting 5 from the Clippers. I like Houston's size advantage over the Clippers in this one giving Griffen and DJ lots of problems down low. Houston has had great success at LA, going 15-4 ATS in the last 19 trips to play the Clippers. Have the bookies figured out Houston yet? We will see...


Keep An Eye On:

The Lowest Under:

Came through last night. Tonight it involves the Celtics again but they are playing the Grizzles who score and allow over 100 points. I don't like it.

Fading Houston:

Going against it tonight.

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Documented Results as of May 11, 2015

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