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Wednesday, October 23, 2013

2 For the Show

Hi all,

Well I went 2-1 last night in the NHL with my only loss on a dog. Unfortunately that only netted me .03 which is annoying but again, I'm not here to make money gambling. We all know that's impossible, that's why Las Vegas is still in business. What I'm here to do is be 60% or better with my picks.

Slowly but surely...

Yesterday21066.7%$0.03
Last Week2016055.6%$1.14
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Last 90 Days6461051.2%-$14.42
Last Year4123741452.4%-$28.03
Lifetime122510105054.8%-$59.21


It's pretty light tonight with only two games in the NHL and of course the WS. In the NHL I like Boston (-184) @ Buffalo. We know how sorry Buffalo is sitting at the bottom of the Eastern Conference with only one win whereas the Bruins are one of the top teams in that same conference. This is just as much of a bet against Buffalo as it is for Boston.

I'm finding it very hard to look for an angle/edge in the WS. It seems that everything Boston did well to get them here St. Louis has an answer for. Both teams are hitting just above .200 and both have great rotations as well as fantastic bullpens. We certainly have the two best teams at the WS so look for this one to go 6 or 7 games.

The games are going to come down to a few things in my opinion. Game 1 will come down to which starter can last longer and preserve the bullpen for the rest of the series. When the Cardinals do go to their bullpen this is where Boston must take advantage. St Louis' bullpen has a 1.80 ERA to Boston's 0.84. Even though Wainright averages about 103 pitches per start  versus Lester's 107 he's got 5 complete games this year to Lester's one. So if anyone can go the distance it's Wainright.

In game 2 I think Boston has the advantage since the Cardinals are starting a rookie Michael Wacha. Even though this kid is tough as nails and has flirted with no-hitters I just feel that the WS stage might be a little overwhelming especially pitching in Fenway and he makes a couple of mistakes that push the Red Sox to victory.

If Boston can split the first two games their rotation stacks up much better with Lackey and Peavy versus Kelly and Lynn. We will definitely see the Cardinal bullpen in game three since Kelly hasn't gone more than 6 innings but once since becoming a starter. Again this is where the Red Sox will get their runs, a John Axofrd melt down is bound to happen. Game 4 is a toss up since Peavy has been terrible in the post season.

One thing to point out it is that the entire rotation of the Cardinals are right handers...so was Detroit's. Boston should be very comfortable at the plate this series.

The other things to look for is how well will the Red Sox run? Molina is the toughest catcher to run on. Will the Red Sox have Ortiz start at 1st base in game 3 and 4 and give up some defense? What type of production will the Cardinals get our of Allen Craig who has been out since September 4th?

Here are my picks for the first 4 games:

Game 1: Under (7)
Game 2: Red Sox. Wacha makes a crucial mistake in a big inning succumbing to the pressure of pitching in Fenway.
Game 3: Red Sox. The Cardinal bullpen gets exposed; Axford melts down.
Game 4: Depends on game 1. If the Cardinals win game 1 then I'll take them to even it up. If Boston is up 3 games its a no brainer; Sox in a sweep (sound familiar?)

Take the Bruins and the under in the WS.

Good luck all!!!
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