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Wednesday, October 16, 2013

Yesterday Was a Good Day!

Hi all...yesterday was a good day especially if you followed my pics. I went 3-1 in hockey AND the Red Sox beat Verlander! We have two MLB games and two NHL games on tap for tonight but before I lay out my picks I have two things I'd like to discuss. One is short the other is long...okay I'll say what I have to say about the first subject...do picks...then my second subject.

First things first however, my record to date:

Yesterday31075.0%$0.82
Last Week2015057.1%-$0.88
Last Month3935052.7%-$6.45
Last 90 Days4445049.4%-$15.56
Last Year3943581452.4%-$28.17
Lifetime12059945054.8%-$60.35

I'm almost in the 50%s across the board!

First subject...beware of the swings towards equalization. Yesterday's successes could end up being today's losses. What I mean is that I cannot expect to go 3-1 every night so I can not get too ahead of myself and bet all four games tonight thinking I'm on some sort of hot streak. More than likely I even out and go 1-3. So I'm going with a value play that will minimize my losses and maximize my gains.

A parlay of the Red Sox and Anaheim Ducks for (+178). The Ducks are a (-209) favorite at home and the Red Sox have Peavy on the mound against Fister. I believe the Red Sox get to Fister early and if Detroit get's to Peavy I'll take the Red Sox offense over Detroit's any day especially with a hurting Miggy and a depressed Fielder.

2-team parlay:

Red Sox/Ducks (+178)

My second subject has to do with the idea of investments, in particular mutual funds. If we think of college football teams as stocks and 4 team teasers as mutual funds then we have a recipe for 60% or better.

Let me explain. If we took the top 4-10 AP ranked football teams (stocks) in put them in a 4 team teaser (mutual fund) each week we would have a 5-2 (71%) record through 7 weeks of play! 

Two rules must be followed. For one you have to look at the top 5 possibly 6 teams because for one all top 4 or 5 or 6 teams don't play the same day, and secondly any spread over -30 is disqualified. 

See the results below:

Week 1 (8/31)
Team
Spread
Margin of Win/Loss
Added points
Result
Bama
-21.5
25
13
W
Ohio St
-34
DQ
DQ
DQ
Oregon
-59
DQ
DQ
DQ
Stanford
bye
bye
bye
bye
Georgia
-1.5
-3
13
W
South Car.
-11
17
13
W
Texas A&M
-28
21
13
W
Week 2 (9/7)
Team
Spread
Margin of Win/Loss
Added points
Result
Bama
bye
bye
bye
bye
Ohio St
-28
35
13
W
Oregon
-26.5
49
13
W
Clemson
-52.5
DQ
DQ
DQ
Stanford
-24.5
21
13
W
South Car.
3
-11
13
W
Week 3 (9/14)
Team
Spread
Margin of Win/Loss
Added points
Result
Bama
-8.5
7
13
W
Oregon
-28
45
13
W
Clemson
bye
bye
bye
bye
Ohio St
-12.5
18
13
W
Stanford
-30
DQ
DQ
DQ
Texas A&M
8.5
-7
13
W
Week 4 (9/21)
Team
Spread
Margin of Win/Loss
Added points
Result
Bama
-40
DQ
DQ
DQ
Oregon
bye
bye
bye
bye
Clemson (9/19 game)
-12.5
12
13
W
Ohio St
-48
DQ
DQ
DQ
Stanford
-6.5
14
13
W
LSU
bye
bye
bye
bye
Louisville
-44
DQ
DQ
DQ
FSU
-40
DQ
DQ
DQ
Georgia
-33.5
DQ
DQ
DQ
Texas A&M
-27.5
29
13
W
Oklahoma St
bye
bye
bye
bye
South Car
bye
bye
bye
bye
UCLA
-44
DQ
DQ
DQ
Oklahoma
bye
bye
bye
bye
Michigan
-18.5
3
13
L
Week 5 (9/28)
Team
Spread
Margin of Win/Loss
Added points
Result
Bama
-14
25
13
W
Oregon
-38.5
DQ
DQ
DQ
Clemson
-28.5
49
13
W
Ohio St
-7
7
13
W
Stanford
-9
38
13
W
Week 6 (10/5)
Team
Spread
Margin of Win/Loss
Added points
Result
Bama
-54.5
DQ
DQ
DQ
Oregon
-38
DQ
DQ
DQ
Clemson
-14
35
13
W
Ohio St
-6.5
10
13
W
Stanford
-8.5
3
13
W
Georgia
-13.5
3
13
W
Week 7 (10/12)
Team
Spread
Margin of Win/Loss
Added points
Result
Bama
-26.5
41
13
W
Oregon
-11.5
21
13
W
Clemson
-24
10
13
L
Ohio St
bye
bye
bye
bye
Stanford
-7.5
-6
13
L

The two loses are week 4 and last week. Week 4 I had to put Michigan as my fourth team because so many teams ranked above them were either on byes or had spreads over 30, and last week which was dubbed upset Saturday.

Now the real question is will this trend continue? Hard to say now that we are in the meat of the schedules and the bookies have adjusted their spreads accordingly. In my opinion we need to lower the spread ceiling to -25 and disqualify any big game. If we do this we have our following 4-team teaser disqualifying Bama and Oregon because of big spreads and Clemson/FSU which is the biggest game of the year after Bama/Texas A&M:

Ohio St at home vs Iowa -4
LSU at Ole Miss +5
Texas A&M at home vs Auburn +.5
Louisville at home vs. Central Florida +.5 (Friday night game)

Bama is -28 and Oregon is -38.5 both playing inferior opponents. Feel free to substitute.

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