Magic Number to 60% - 310
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I've said this before but this time for real...no more road teams in the NHL. I just can't trust them. If I would have laid off the road teams yesterday in NHL and NBA I'd be 5-2.
The Avs loss at home I have no answer for and the Memphis loss at home gives me a new trend to follow.
But first the picks.
Staying with the NHL, here are four home teams that have a pretty good chance at wining tonight.
Panthers @ Bruins (-254): Florida is at the bottom of their conference with Buffalo coming off a loss to the Oilers who are at the bottom of their conference. The Bruins are coming off a loss to Dallas on Tuesday will be looking to get back on track at home.
Oilers @ Lighting (-199): Speaking of the Oilers they travel to Florida to play an upstart Lighting team who beat St Louis on Saturday and are a top of their conference.
Flames @ Blues (-252): I seem to be on the wrong side of Calgary games this season but I just can't see them coming off their road trip at .500. If they somehow get a win here I'll make it up when thy travel to Colorado.
Sabres @ Kings (-261): Here is an example of betting against a team that is terrible playing quality opponents. Buffalo had no business beating the Sharks and now have to face the Kings. Do you think the Kings will take this game lightly and let them hang around? If you bet against Buffalo on Tuesday then you must bet against them tonight.
Boy do we have a couple of great games tonight! The outcome of Oklahoma @ Baylor and Oregon @ Stanford will shape the BCS for the rest of the season. My prediction is that Baylor and Stanford win but there is no way I'm betting since both these games fall into the big game/big drama category. However there is value here.
1Q under (13.4) Oregon @ Stanford: I know Oregon has a prolific offense and scores quickly in games but Stanford's defense is pretty darn good, ranked 2nd in the Pac-12. Oregon's defense is ranked 4th in the Pac-12. Everyone is talking about all the offense in this game but I see both teams playing a little conservative out of the gate. I especially see Stanford trying to control the line of scrimmage and time of possession. As a result a low scoring first quarter.
I cannot possibly make a pick on Washington @ Minnesota but I'm leaning to the over at 48.5
LA Lakers @ Houston (-13): Big spread I know, but Superman has got to be motivated about his former team coming to town. The Lakers will simply not have an answer for Howard down low. Plus the Lakers are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 meetings and 0-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings at Houston.
Keep An Eye On:
The Lowest Under: ATS: (4-2)
Hit last night...but only 3 games tonight so the system has no play.
Fading Houston: ATS: (3-1-1)
Not fading tonight.
Shading New Orleans: ATS (2-3)
I know it doesn't look like a promising investment right now but let's look at their last five games starting with their first:
At home vs. Indiana favored by -1.5 lost by 5. That's a pretty good showing against an Indiana team that looks to be the favorite in the East.
At Orlando favored by 4 lost by 20. No excuse for this. They stunk up the joint.
At Charlotte favored by 8.5 won by 21. No biggie they crushed one of the worst teams in the NBA.
At home vs. Phoenix favored by 9.5 lost by 6. See the Orlando game.
At Memphis getting 7 winning by 15: Wow that's impressive. Memphis is certainly favored to make the playoffs.
So it appears to me that the bookies have't quite figured out what to do with this team as a result there should be some value taking them as they continue to play together. So far it looks like they play up or down to their competition. I see this problem going away as they continue to be coached as a unit.
Shading Detroit: ATS (3-1)
The Detroit Pistons were picked as the most improved team by the survey of GM's the NBA puts out every year. New Orleans got votes too. It's clear they are playing good basketball going 3-1 ATS with their only loss ATS was against those same Pacers. Look for this team to be low favorites against the bottom half of the NBA and getting a few more points than needed against the top teams.
Good Luck Everyone!