I've written about this before and it seams that it is the hardest thing for me to do. On Sunday I took the over in the Nats/Padres game at 7.5. Close to game time it moved a full run to 6.5! This is a very significant move. Immediately I thought I was on the wrong side and the "sharps" or "Vegas" knew something I didn't. I struggled with the question of buying more at 6.5 or walking away since it was a loser anyway. Well the final score looked more like a football score than a baseball score. Clearly I should have trusted myself and bought more.
Yesterday the two games I really liked, the Phillies and the Bolts were winners. However I thought I'd get cute and take the Angles against a mediocre pitcher that was pushed into starting that day, and the Astros since "everyone" was backing them. Well guess what...2 losers! Thank goodness I bought more of the Phillies after Wilson and the Angles bullpen puked all over the mound.
This blog and this journey into handicapping and sports investment is a work in progress and I will continue to work on trusting myself.
Yesterday I finished 3-2 which is 60% and a tiny bit of profit. Today looks much better.
Quite a few overs on the diamond tonight, my favorite thing to bet on, in case you haven't noticed. Plus, a couple of pitchers I trust. I couldn't pull the trigger on Gray and the A's. I just can't see the Astros being held to a couple of runs two nights in a row.
What I'll be watching though is game 1 of the Western Conference Finals to see how Houston and the Warriors are going to play each other. The total is 220 and I think this is one of the most fascinating totals to try to handicap.
On one hand the Warriors can run with the best of them and will just flat out score you and we all saw that Houston can do the same thing. But if the Warriors get into a track meet with Houston the games might be too close for comfort.
If the Warriors slow it down, play defense and use their half-court offense and minimize Houston's fast-break opportunities then I think the game gets further out of reach for Houston since their idea of a half-court offense is for Harden to hold the ball for 18 seconds then drive to the basket.
I think 220 is a high total and the smart play here is to take the 1H under currently at 110; if it hit's enjoy the second half, if indeed it is a track meet, then take the 2H over.
As you can see I'm not taking my own advice; I hate playing unders.
At 5/18/15: $30.11
At 5/19/15: $30.28
Amount Needed: $2.83
|Last 90 Days||256||213||14||54.6%||$7.72|
|05-19-15||MLB||Cubs at Padres OVER 6.5 (-110)||$0.29||$0.26||pending|
|05-19-15||MLB||MONEYLINE: Reds +114||$0.44||$0.50||pending|
|05-19-15||MLB||MONEYLINE: Cardinals -116||$0.58||$0.50||pending|
|05-19-15||MLB||Diamondbacks at Marlins OVER 7.5 (-120)||$0.75||$0.62||pending|
|05-19-15||MLB||Twins at Pirates OVER 7.5 (+100)||$0.50||$0.50||pending|
|05-19-15||MLB||Yankees at Nationals OVER 7.5 (+100)||$0.50||$0.50||pending|
Good Luck All!
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