Documented Results as of July 20th 2018

Upcoming Picks


Win 2019 Heisman Trophy - Jalen Hurts +650 (L)
Win 2019 Heisman Trophy - Tua Tagovailoa +500 (L)
Win 2019 Heisman Trophy - Trevor Lawrence +350 (L)
Win 2019 Heisman Trophy - Joe Burrow +375 (W)

Alabama 11 wins OVER (10-2) LOSER!
Baylor 7 wins OVER (9-0) WINNER!
Florida 9 wins OVER (10-2) WINNER!
Georgia 10.5 wins OVER (11-1) WINNER!
Illinois 3.5 wins OVER (6-4) WINNER!
LSU 8.5 wins OVER (9-0) WINNER!
Michigan 9.5 wins OVER (9-3) LOSER!
Notre Dame 9.5 wins OVER (10-2) WINNER!
Ohio St 10 wins OVER (10-0) WINNER!
Nebraska 8 wins OVER (4-5) LOSER
Oregon 8.5 wins OVER (9-1) WINNER!
Sparty 7 wins OVER (4-5) LOSER
Utah 8.5 wins OVER (9-1) WINNER!


Reach AFC Conference Final - Kansas City Chiefs +160 (W)
Reach AFC Conference Final - Jacksonville Jaguars +625 (L)
Reach NFC Conference Final - New Orleans Saints +215 (L)
Reach NFC Conference Final - Chicago Bears +365 (L)

Cleveland Browns win AFC North +120 LOSER!
Jacksonville Jaguars win AFC South +350 LOSER!
Los Angeles Chargers win AFC West +280 LOSER!
Philadelphia Eagles win NFC East +105 WINNER!
Chicago Bears win NFC North +175 LOSER!
Carolina Panthers win NFC South +775 LOSER!
Seattle Seahawks win NFC West +280 LOSER!

CHI regular season wins over 9½ +105 (6-6) LOSER!
CLE regular season wins over 9 -130 (5-7) LOSER!
DAL regular season wins over 8½ -130 (7-6) LOSER!
GB regular season wins over 9½ +105 (10-3) WINNER!
JAX regular season wins over 8 -115 (4-8) LOSER!
KC regular season wins over 10½ -115 (10-4) WINNER!
LAR regular season wins over 10½ -105 (8-6) LOSER!
NOR regular season wins over 10½ +105 (10-3) WINNER!
PIT regular season wins under 8½ +120 (8-6) WINNER!
SEA regular season wins over 8½ -115 (9-2) WINNER!

New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl +975 (11-3) LOSER!


ATL regular season wins over 34.5 (15-39)
BOS regular season wins over 49.5 (37-15)
DEN regular season wins over 53.5 (37-16)
DET regular season wins over 38.5 (19-36)
LAC regular season wins over 54.5 (37-16)
MIA regular season wins over 43.5 (34-18)
ORL regular season wins over 41.5 (22-31)
PHI regular season wins over 54.5 (33-21)
POR regular season wins over 47.5 (25-29)
SAC regular season wins over 37 (21-31)
SAS regular season wins over 46.5 22-30)
UTA regular season wins over 53.5 (34-18)


Yankees to win WS +400

Monday, October 19, 2015

Today's Line - Make Good Decisions

5-2 yesterday and back to a healthy bankroll. I've decided that my goal of trying to make a profit in 3 days, etc. or increasing my bankroll by 10%, etc. was counter-intuitive to what I'm trying to do here and the purpose of this blog.

The purpose of this blog which I have written above is to pursue 60% or better on my sports plays. If I do that the bankroll will take care of itself. The only way to achieve 60% or better is to make good decisions.

That is the goal; make good decisions.

A big part of making good decisions is not playing so many games at one time. The amount of college football plays is ridiculous as you can see below:

Last Week39225.0%-$2.655979
Last Month4250945.7%-$4.6110193
Last 90 Days78771050.3%-$3.3411416

Just over 100 plays in a month! No one can expect to be profitable with that many plays. This is the first thing I need to tighten up. I don't want to put a hard cap on it but any more than 5 and I need to reevaluate.

The second piece of making good decisions is finding value in the spreads. Look at the Arizona/Pittsburgh game. The Cards were laying more than a FG on the road. Where is the value there? With the Steelers as a 4 point home dog. What do I do...took the Cards and lost!

I need to do a better job finding value in a play and taking advantage of it.


Giants at Eagles (-4): Here we have some reverse line movement (RLM). 65% of the bets are on the Giants but the spread has moved from 3.5 to 4. That tells me that there are a bunch of little bets on the Giants but some huge bets on the Eagles. Therefore Vegas has to keep making the Giants look enticing to attract even more money to balance out their exposure on the Eagles. I have heart. I will follow the RLM. This is a good decision.

Giants at Eagles UNDER (50.5): Here we have an over inflated total because of two reasons. One it's Monday night and under the lights on prime time teams score more points. That may be true but Vegas knows this and has already shaded the total to reflect that. Secondly, perception that the Eagles have finally figured it out on offense. Why because they scored 39 against the worst defense in the league last week? Because the Giants put up 30 on Sunday night against the 49ers including a last minute score. Both these teams struggle to score averaging 26 and 23 points a game respectively. I see a classic NFC East low scoring match up here, where both teams will try to run the ball and control the clock. First one to 20 wins.

Toronto at KC (+149): Here is where we find value and take advantage of it. I understand that the Jays are 0-2 and human nature says the Royals give in here but you have Cueto and the scrappy Royals at plus money against a Jays team that once again finds themselves down 0-2. Who knows the outcome but anytime you can get a guy like Cueto and a team that grins out at bats at plus money you have to take it.

Record Since Inception 9/26/13:

2171-1979 (52.3%)


At 10/19/15: $13.80

Goal: Make Good Decisions

Last Week1621243.2%-$1.7
Last Month981051348.3%-$4.78
Last 90 Days2912591752.9%-$3.48
Last Year111011135849.9%-$38.76

10-19-15NFLGiants at Eagles UNDER 50.5 (-110)$0.83$0.75pending

10-19-15NFLATS: Eagles -4 (-110)$0.28$0.25pending

10-19-15MLBMONEYLINE: Royals +149$0.25$0.37pending

Good Luck All!

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Documented Results as of May 11, 2015