The purpose of this blog which I have written above is to pursue 60% or better on my sports plays. If I do that the bankroll will take care of itself. The only way to achieve 60% or better is to make good decisions.
That is the goal; make good decisions.
A big part of making good decisions is not playing so many games at one time. The amount of college football plays is ridiculous as you can see below:
|Last 90 Days||78||77||10||50.3%||-$3.34||11416|
Just over 100 plays in a month! No one can expect to be profitable with that many plays. This is the first thing I need to tighten up. I don't want to put a hard cap on it but any more than 5 and I need to reevaluate.
The second piece of making good decisions is finding value in the spreads. Look at the Arizona/Pittsburgh game. The Cards were laying more than a FG on the road. Where is the value there? With the Steelers as a 4 point home dog. What do I do...took the Cards and lost!
I need to do a better job finding value in a play and taking advantage of it.
Giants at Eagles (-4): Here we have some reverse line movement (RLM). 65% of the bets are on the Giants but the spread has moved from 3.5 to 4. That tells me that there are a bunch of little bets on the Giants but some huge bets on the Eagles. Therefore Vegas has to keep making the Giants look enticing to attract even more money to balance out their exposure on the Eagles. I have heart. I will follow the RLM. This is a good decision.
Giants at Eagles UNDER (50.5): Here we have an over inflated total because of two reasons. One it's Monday night and under the lights on prime time teams score more points. That may be true but Vegas knows this and has already shaded the total to reflect that. Secondly, perception that the Eagles have finally figured it out on offense. Why because they scored 39 against the worst defense in the league last week? Because the Giants put up 30 on Sunday night against the 49ers including a last minute score. Both these teams struggle to score averaging 26 and 23 points a game respectively. I see a classic NFC East low scoring match up here, where both teams will try to run the ball and control the clock. First one to 20 wins.
Toronto at KC (+149): Here is where we find value and take advantage of it. I understand that the Jays are 0-2 and human nature says the Royals give in here but you have Cueto and the scrappy Royals at plus money against a Jays team that once again finds themselves down 0-2. Who knows the outcome but anytime you can get a guy like Cueto and a team that grins out at bats at plus money you have to take it.
Record Since Inception 9/26/13:
At 10/19/15: $13.80
Goal: Make Good Decisions
|Last 90 Days||291||259||17||52.9%||-$3.48|
|10-19-15||NFL||Giants at Eagles UNDER 50.5 (-110)||$0.83||$0.75||pending|
|10-19-15||NFL||ATS: Eagles -4 (-110)||$0.28||$0.25||pending|
|10-19-15||MLB||MONEYLINE: Royals +149||$0.25||$0.37||pending|
Good Luck All!