Documented Results as of May 11, 2015

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Saturday, October 10, 2015

Today's Line - A Rarity

Well folks I went 2-3 yesterday but actually won $0.04. How often does that happen? Reason being is that two of my loses were only for $0.10 while both my wins were for $0.26 and $0.22. I think this pretty much proves the theory that some plays are better than others.

Today we have quite a line up of plays in all three of the major sports so let's jump right in.

#LetsGet60

CFB:

Virginia (+8.5) at Pitt: This line got as high as 10.5 I think before settling in at 9/9.5. Frankly I'm shocked that Pitt is getting this much love. Yes they beat Va Tech and that win is looking better but 9.5 points against a conference foe is a bit much. The Coastal is wide open and despite Virginia's early loses they still have a lot to play for. In fact I'll go out on a limb and call for the out right win for the Cavs

Northwestern (+8)(+10) at Michigan: Another line move that is surprising to me. As of this writing 75% of the public is on Northwestern however the line is moving with the Wildcats. This is a classic example of reverse line movement but I don't get it. I bought some at 8 and I'm buying more at 10. Northwestern has a great defense as does Michigan. Both teams will want to grid it out and make this game a one possession ball game.


Iowa State at Texas Tech (-10): As I said in my notes on the right if Tech stays under 14 scoop it up. I feel this line is a perception line where Tech got blowed out two weeks in a row. Well folks those were against two top 5 teams in the country. Iowa State is nowhere near the talent that TCU and Baylor have on offense. Tech cruises at home.


Oklahoma St at West Virginia (-6.5) and OVER (60): At first glance this line might strike anyone as odd. Oky St is 5-0 with wins over Texas and Kansas St while West Virginia is coming of a bad loss to Oklahoma but is favored at home. Personally I think this number is too low. The Cowboys are in a big let down spot after an emotional win at home against K-State they have to travel to West Virginia. Remember the Cowboys beat Texas on a fluke play and were losing most of the game to K-State. West Virginia will be looking to bounce back from getting beat by Oklahoma. I see a lot of points in this game as both teams throe the ball very well and it being under a touch down bodes well for West Virginia backers.

Arkansas at Alabama (-16.5): Bama is on a mission and as I said in my notes Arkansas is a watered down Georgia that likes to run the ball and stay under center an offense that plays right into Bama's defenses strength. Bama will be playing with a ton of confidence at home in front of a raucous crowd. No let down here Saban is too good to let that happen. Bama big.

TCU (-9) at Kansas State: Kansas St is one of my favorite teams to back but not this week. After losing to Oklahoma St on a late field goal they have the pleasure of welcoming one of the hottest teams in country with a Heisman quarterback. TCU coming off a big win against Texas will not slow down against an emotionally drained K-State team.

Florida (-5.5) at Missouri: I grabbed this too early I suppose as not the line moved down to 4, but it's not that big of deal since it's still in between the two key numbers. I talk a lot about let downs and this might be one for the Gators but I jut don't see the Tigers moving the ball against the Gator defense. Florida is ranked 9th in defensive efficiency while Missouri is ranked 90 in offensive efficiency. Ole Miss is ranked 3rd, and we all saw how that worked out last week. Even if there is a let down Florida has the athletes to hang and beat Missouri by 6 or more.

Miami at FSU (-7): I liked this at 9.5 and as of this writing 66% of the public is on Miami. 7 looks even better. FSU is playing at home at night to stay undefeated. Miami's coach is desperate to save his job, never a good thing.

Sparty (-13.5) at Rutgers: Do you think Sparty might be a little pissed off about dropping in the rankings? I see Sparty coming out focused and ready to do damage on a pitiful Rutgers team.

Georgia (-3) at Tennessee: Yes the Bulldogs blew it last week and their coach can't win the big one; we know. But this is not the big one, in fact this is a great opportunity for Georgia to keep their SEC Championship aspirations alive by taking care of business against a rivalry that is finding ways to lose. The Vols have had three gut wrenching loses that has to welcome a pissed off Georgia team. I see the bulldogs pounding the ball like they've done all year and the Vols wearing down in the 4th quarter.

Cal at Utah OVER (61): You like points? Well don't miss this game as two of the top 20 teams in offensive efficiency square off in the night cap. This is the type of game where the first one to 35 will win. We know Cal can't stop anyone and even though Utah's defense is decent I don't see them putting on a clinic against Cal's high powered offense.

Other games of interest...

Much like the Blow Jays the Cubs are in serious trouble as they dropped game 1 last night. I don't see Hendricks being their savior today. Cards take game 2. Either way I'll take Arrieta in game 3.

I don't' see a line for the Doyers game but Greinke has been solid for them all year, I like LA to knot the series at 1-1.

On the ice I'm going square with the Bolts and the Predators. Detroit, Calgary and Anaheim are giving good value.


Record Since Inception 9/26/13:

2145-1940 (52.5%)

Balance:

At 9/14/15: $14.43
At 10/08/15: $14.09
Growth: 4%

Goal: $14.89
Amount Needed: $0.80


Yesterday23040.0%$0.04
Last Week2013060.6%$2.29
Last Month107971252.5%$1.74
Last 90 Days2762351554.0%$1.16
Last Year111011045550.1%-$38.16

10-10-15NHLMONEYLINE: Ducks +102$0.25$0.25pending

10-10-15NHLMONEYLINE: Flames +132$0.08$0.10pending

10-10-15CFBGolden Bears at Utes OVER 61 (-110)$0.50$0.45pending

10-10-15CFBATS: Seminoles -7 (-105)$0.25$0.23pending

10-10-15CFBATS: Spartans -13.5 (-110)$0.25$0.22pending

10-10-15CFBATS: Pirates +10 (-120) b0.5$0.12$0.10pending

10-10-15CFBATS: Gators -5.5 (-110)$0.50$0.45pending

10-10-15NHLMONEYLINE: Red Wings -120$0.12$0.10pending

10-10-15NHLMONEYLINE: Predators -188$0.25$0.13pending

10-10-15CFBATS: Rams +15 (-110)$0.11$0.10pending

10-10-15CFBATS: Mountaineers -6.5 (-110)$0.25$0.22pending

10-10-15CFBCowboys at Mountaineers OVER 60 (-110)$0.50$0.45pending

10-10-15CFBATS: Horned Frogs -9.5 (-110)$0.25$0.22pending

10-10-15CFBATS: Crimson Tide -16.5 (-110)$0.50$0.45pending

10-10-15MLBMONEYLINE: Cardinals -133$0.25$0.18pending

10-10-15CFBATS: Badgers -2 (-115)$0.10$0.08pending

10-10-15CFBATS: Red Raiders -10 (-130) b1$0.50$0.38pending

10-10-15CFBATS: Wildcats +10 (-110)$0.25$0.22pending

10-10-15CFBATS: Midshipmen +14.5 (-110)$0.25$0.22pending

10-10-15CFBATS: Bulldogs -3 (-110)$0.50$0.45pending

10-10-15CFBATS: Wildcats +8 (-110)$0.28$0.25pending

10-10-15NHLMONEYLINE: Lightning -191$0.25$0.13pending

10-10-15CFBATS: Cavaliers +8.5 (-110)$0.25$0.22pending

Good Luck All!
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Documented Results as of May 11, 2015