Documented Results as of May 11, 2015


Monday, August 29, 2016

Today's Line - Regression?

2-6 yesterday with a loss of $0.60. This was the second day in a row where my baseball plays missed their mark. My natural reaction is to blame regression; my regression and the home plate umpire's.

My regression is to be expected; you can't run hot forever and that is why 53% is acceptable for handicappers and sustaining anything higher is extremely difficult. This is why you should only make a few plays a day and always keep them to one unit or less, etc.

But what about home plate umpire's regression? If a Ump tends to call a game with a bunch of runs isn't it a statistical inevitability that during the course of the season it will even out? Maybe. We are talking about human behavior and if you have a guy that calls games with a bunch of runs he's gonna call games with a bunch of runs every game; that is just who he is.

I took a closer look at the 4 games I took the over on and saw that in the Angels/Tigers game the Tigers could only muster 4 hits while leaving 7 men on base and going 0-4 w/RISP. The Angels got 11 hits, leaving 5 men on base, and going 2-8 w/RISP.

I'm not sure if this had anything to do with Saturday's ejections of 4 Tigers, remember we are talking about human behavior, but it certainly seems like the home plate ump was calling the game like he always did...but just for one team. Regardless the Tigers didn't execute with 7 men left on base and the Angels should have gotten more runs but failed to do anything with RISP.  I don't see any real evidence of regression, just bad baseball.

In the Rockies Nats game there were a total of 16 hits. Rockies with 10, 7 men left on base and 1-9 w/RISP while the Nats got 6 hits, 4 men left on base, and 1-3 w/RISP. No evidence that the home plate ump called it any differently then before. Again this is just poor execution and bad baseball on both teams.

Cleveland and Texas combined for 11 hits; 6 for the Indians, 5 for the Rangers. Indians left 7 on base and went 1-6 w/RISP while the Rangers left 6 on base and went 2-4 w/RISP. In this game the Rangers made the most of their opportunity against a decent pitcher but the Indians clearly did not. Once again I don't see the ump trending back towards the middle, the Indians played bad baseball.

Finally the Cubs and Dodgers. Each team only got 4 hits each but the Cubs left 8 men on base going 0-4 w/RISP while the Dodgers left 7 on base going 0-5 w/RISP. Even though the ump only called a game with 8 hits both teams had multiple opportunities to score and didn't. Bad execution, bad baseball, and from what I saw a bad call that was upheld in replay.

The point of all this is that in my opinion umpire trends don't regress as much as say a hitting streak or a flip of the coin but they do depend heavily on the execution of both teams to get to that magic number. Taking overs with bad teams (Angels, Rockies) my risk increased and this is part of the reason why I lost.

Mets basically have a AAA lineup tonight against a pretty good pitcher
Ridding the Porcello streak
Fadding Shields and the White Sox bullpen
Small play on the Cards
Go Cubs Go
Does anyone trust Gee?
Maeda actually pitched well at Coors last two times out


Record Since Inception:
September 26, 2013:

2872-2625 (52.2%)

Beginning Balance: $7.80 (link)

Yesterday: $20.23
Today: $19.63
Since Inception: +11.83
Growth: 152%

Last Week3122558.5%
Last Month83762152.2%
Last 90 Days2161753555.2%
Last Year8868236951.8%

08-29-16MLBMONEYLINE: Dodgers -130$0.10$0.07pending

08-29-16MLBYankees at Royals OVER 8 (-105)$0.10$0.09pending

08-29-16MLB1st 5 Innings MONEYLINE: Cubs -257$0.40$0.15pending

08-29-16MLB1st 5 Innings MONEYLINE: Cardinals-148$0.10$0.06pending

08-29-16MLBMONEYLINE: Tigers -192$0.40$0.20pending

08-29-16MLB1st 5 Innings MONEYLINE: Red Sox-175$0.40$0.23pending

08-29-16MLB1st 5 Innings MONEYLINE: Marlins-160$0.40$0.25pending

Good Luck All!
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Documented Results as of May 11, 2015