Documented Results as of July 20th 2018

Upcoming Picks


Win 2019 Heisman Trophy - Jalen Hurts +650
Win 2019 Heisman Trophy - Tua Tagovailoa +500
Win 2019 Heisman Trophy - Trevor Lawrence +350

Alabama 11 wins OVER
Baylor 7 wins OVER
Florida 9 wins OVER
Georgia 10.5 wins OVER
Illinois 3.5 wins OVER
LSU 8.5 wins OVER
Michigan 9.5 wins OVER
Notre Dame 9.5 wins OVER
Ohio St 10 wins OVER
Nebraska 8 wins OVER
Oregon 8.5 wins OVER
Sparty 7 wins OVER
Utah 8.5 wins OVER


Reach AFC Conference Final - Kansas City Chiefs +160
Reach AFC Conference Final - Jacksonville Jaguars +625
Reach NFC Conference Final - New Orleans Saints +215
Reach NFC Conference Final - Chicago Bears +365

Cleveland Browns win AFC North +120
Jacksonville Jaguars win AFC South +350
Los Angeles Chargers win AFC West +280
Philadelphia Eagles win NFC East +105
Chicago Bears win NFC North +175
Carolina Panthers win NFC South +775
Seattle Seahawks win NFC West +280

CHI regular season wins over 9½ +105
CLE regular season wins over 9 -130
DAL regular season wins over 8½ -130
GB regular season wins over 9½ +105
JAX regular season wins over 8 -115
KC regular season wins over 10½ -115
LAR regular season wins over 10½ -105
NOR regular season wins over 10½ +105
PIT regular season wins under 8½ +120
SEA regular season wins over 8½ -115

New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl +975

Monday, August 29, 2016

Today's Line - Regression?

2-6 yesterday with a loss of $0.60. This was the second day in a row where my baseball plays missed their mark. My natural reaction is to blame regression; my regression and the home plate umpire's.

My regression is to be expected; you can't run hot forever and that is why 53% is acceptable for handicappers and sustaining anything higher is extremely difficult. This is why you should only make a few plays a day and always keep them to one unit or less, etc.

But what about home plate umpire's regression? If a Ump tends to call a game with a bunch of runs isn't it a statistical inevitability that during the course of the season it will even out? Maybe. We are talking about human behavior and if you have a guy that calls games with a bunch of runs he's gonna call games with a bunch of runs every game; that is just who he is.

I took a closer look at the 4 games I took the over on and saw that in the Angels/Tigers game the Tigers could only muster 4 hits while leaving 7 men on base and going 0-4 w/RISP. The Angels got 11 hits, leaving 5 men on base, and going 2-8 w/RISP.

I'm not sure if this had anything to do with Saturday's ejections of 4 Tigers, remember we are talking about human behavior, but it certainly seems like the home plate ump was calling the game like he always did...but just for one team. Regardless the Tigers didn't execute with 7 men left on base and the Angels should have gotten more runs but failed to do anything with RISP.  I don't see any real evidence of regression, just bad baseball.

In the Rockies Nats game there were a total of 16 hits. Rockies with 10, 7 men left on base and 1-9 w/RISP while the Nats got 6 hits, 4 men left on base, and 1-3 w/RISP. No evidence that the home plate ump called it any differently then before. Again this is just poor execution and bad baseball on both teams.

Cleveland and Texas combined for 11 hits; 6 for the Indians, 5 for the Rangers. Indians left 7 on base and went 1-6 w/RISP while the Rangers left 6 on base and went 2-4 w/RISP. In this game the Rangers made the most of their opportunity against a decent pitcher but the Indians clearly did not. Once again I don't see the ump trending back towards the middle, the Indians played bad baseball.

Finally the Cubs and Dodgers. Each team only got 4 hits each but the Cubs left 8 men on base going 0-4 w/RISP while the Dodgers left 7 on base going 0-5 w/RISP. Even though the ump only called a game with 8 hits both teams had multiple opportunities to score and didn't. Bad execution, bad baseball, and from what I saw a bad call that was upheld in replay.

The point of all this is that in my opinion umpire trends don't regress as much as say a hitting streak or a flip of the coin but they do depend heavily on the execution of both teams to get to that magic number. Taking overs with bad teams (Angels, Rockies) my risk increased and this is part of the reason why I lost.

Mets basically have a AAA lineup tonight against a pretty good pitcher
Ridding the Porcello streak
Fadding Shields and the White Sox bullpen
Small play on the Cards
Go Cubs Go
Does anyone trust Gee?
Maeda actually pitched well at Coors last two times out


Record Since Inception:
September 26, 2013:

2872-2625 (52.2%)

Beginning Balance: $7.80 (link)

Yesterday: $20.23
Today: $19.63
Since Inception: +11.83
Growth: 152%

Last Week3122558.5%
Last Month83762152.2%
Last 90 Days2161753555.2%
Last Year8868236951.8%

08-29-16MLBMONEYLINE: Dodgers -130$0.10$0.07pending

08-29-16MLBYankees at Royals OVER 8 (-105)$0.10$0.09pending

08-29-16MLB1st 5 Innings MONEYLINE: Cubs -257$0.40$0.15pending

08-29-16MLB1st 5 Innings MONEYLINE: Cardinals-148$0.10$0.06pending

08-29-16MLBMONEYLINE: Tigers -192$0.40$0.20pending

08-29-16MLB1st 5 Innings MONEYLINE: Red Sox-175$0.40$0.23pending

08-29-16MLB1st 5 Innings MONEYLINE: Marlins-160$0.40$0.25pending

Good Luck All!

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Documented Results as of May 11, 2015