Documented Results as of May 11, 2015

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Friday, October 4, 2013

Dog Days Are Here Again

I love starting the week on a good note. It wasn't pretty but UCLA covered last night thanks to six interceptions thrown by Utah. Hey a win is a win is a win and we’ll take it. 

Below is my record to date:

Today0000%$0
Yesterday100100.0%$0.55
Last Week95064.3%$0.33
Last Month1613055.2%-$0.37
Last 90 Days1718048.6%-$9.24
Last Year3743381452.5%-$21.03
Lifetime11789675054.9%-$54.03
Best Streak13676464.0%$34.52


 From now on I hope to give you my take on all of the Top 25 games for the week. Then at the bottom I’ll give you my picks...I'll warn you now...I like a lot of dogs this week.

1. Maryland (+16.5) @ FSU: Both teams are coming in unbeaten each having good wins last week of WVU and BC respectively. What is interesting about this game is that Maryland has never won in Tallahassee but has the team to do it this year. This game should be competitive and within two scores at most. I love the fact the spread moved as high as it did. Take Maryland and the points.

2. Louisville (-32) at Temple: Louisville is a big favorite on the road but unlike Oregon we don’t know how good Louisville is. Yes they beat Kentucky but in an in-state rivalry game I can’t really measure how good a team is. Temple is better than their record shows with close loses in their last two games and looking for their first win. They won’t lie down to the Cardinals at home. Too many points to lay. Pass.

3. Texas Tech (-17) @ Kansas: The public likes TT since the spread has moved to 17 since it opened at 16.5. But 17 is a lot to give on the road. TT is 3-0 ATS and Kansas is 0-3, however I just can't give that many points. Pass. However TT will be considered for a 4-team teaser.

4. Georgia St (+54.5) @ Alabama: Pick your score here. But no way am I taking or laying 54.5. Pass.

5. Minnesota (+19) @ Michigan: The line opened at 21 and now has dropped to 19. That tells me that the public is fading Michigan since they had two close calls with inferior opponents. The bye week couldn't have come at a better time for Michigan and I think they have worked out their issues. They will take care of the ball and play better defense. This is ripe for a blowout at home. I don’t normally lay big points but I like Michigan to win big. This is also a perfect candidate for a 4-team teaser.

6. Clemson (-14) @ Syracuse: I took one look at this spread and did a double-take. There is true value here by taking Clemson. I know that the Orange are tough to play in the Dome, however I just don’t see them being able to get consistent pressure on Clemson’s QB to keep the score low. Not only that, but Clemson’s defense is the most talented Syracuse has seen all year. I like Clemson to cover but I like them even more in a 4 team teaser.

7. Kansas St (+13.5) @ Oklahoma St: K-State is coming off a bye week and their coach is one of the best with an extra week to prepare. Ok St. got hit in the mouth last week and were exposed a bit offensively. I see K-St coming in fresh and ready to play and their defense keeping the game close. Fade Okay St. here until we see who they really are on offense. Okay St may win but they won’t cover.

8. Georgia Tech (+6) @ Miami: The line opened at 4.5 and moved a full point and a half to 6. This tells me the public saw that GT was a bit of a fraud and love Miami coming off of two tune-up games after beating Florida. I like Miami as well; they have better athletes on both sides of the ball and should be handle GT’s tired option attack. This is a possible 4-team teaser candidate as well.

9. Georgia (-10) @ Tennessee: Georgia is the better team for sure and on paper they destroy Tennessee. However this is still a rivalry game and the Dogs are on the road. Look for Georgia to come out a bit flat in the first half since they had a big emotional win beating LSU. If you can find a first half line I'd take Tennessee. Georgia wins but not sure if they cover. I stay away from rivalry games. Pass.

10. Fresno St (-27) @ Idaho: Pass.

11. Oregon (-38.5) @ Colorado:  Another big spread with the favorite on the road. Colorado had a nice story until they actually played someone and got destroyed by Oregon St. Meanwhile Oregon keeps rolling at 4-0 covering big spreads. For me 38.5 is way too many points to lay on the road. Pass.

12. Ole Miss (-2.5) @ Auburn: Even though Auburn has had a week off they are not as tested as Ole Miss. Ole Miss played a good game at Alabama and can still make some noise in the SEC West. However this falls into the category of two mediocre teams so I will pass.

13. Arkansas (+13) @ Florida. We all know Florida’s strength is its defense and run game. Arkansas bread and butter is the run game. The line has moved a solid point to 11.5. This tells me the public likes the Gators to cover even though they are 1-3 ATS this year and terrible historically ATS. I see a low scoring ugly game that Florida wins by 6. However I find it hard to bet against my favorite team. Pass.

14. TCU (+9.5) @ Oklahoma: This line moved a full point from 10.5. The public is fading the Sooners because this is the ultimate trap game for Oklahoma coming off a big win at Notre Dame and the Texas game next week. I see the Sooners coming out flat and TCU defense keeps the game close. Sooners win but TCU covers.

15. LSU (-9.5) @ Miss St.: After a crushing defeat on the road last week LSU has to travel again to face Miss St. Les Miles will have his team focused since LSU can still with the SEC West without any help and beating Miss ST. is the first step. I don't see LSU coming out flat and they take care of business on the road. The money line (LSU -354) is where the value is at but I say they cover the 9.5 too. Possible 4 team candidate.

16. ASU (-6) @ Notre Dame: There has been significant movement in the line opening at 6.5 and then moving to as low as 4.5 then to 5.5 and finally settling at 6. This is not surprising as the Irish faithful were jumping all over +6.5 at home. ASU looked very good last week drubbing USC and the Irish looked lost on both sides of the ball at home versus the Sooners. Not to mention Notre Dame is 0-4-1 ATS. The Irish already have two loses so this team might just fold on the season if they get down a couple of scores early. But then again they may have some fight in them since this game will make or break their season. Take the money line at -231 on this high scoring affair and move on.

17. Kentucky (+21) @ South Carolina: 21 points is an awful lot to give however Kentucky is pretty bad. The Gamecocks are getting their original starting quarterback this game but the one they have now has been doing just fine. I see SC’s running game taking over in the 2nd half but not sure if they cover 21. I do like the Gamecocks in a 4-team teaser though.

18. Ohio St (-7) @ Northwestern: There has been significant line movement on this game. It opened at 6 got as low as 5.5 and then jumped to 7. The public likes the Buckeyes but the sharps are split on thinking the inter-conference home dog covers again. I’m leaning towards the public’s take and think Ohio St covers however this is a game where ESPN will cover in prime time at a sold out Ryan Field. Too much drama for me. Pass.

19. West Virginia (+28.5) @ Baylor. Both teams score in bunches but Baylor’s defense is better. However 28 points is a lot to lay. And who has Baylor actually played? WVU has more experience.  I see value in a smidge more than 4 scores I’m taking the points.

20. Washington (+7) @ Stanford: By far the toughest game to call. Stanford is smarting from last year’s loss where Nunes was the quarterback. Hogan has taken over since and the Stanford offense is throwing the ball down the field instead of playing small ball with two TE sets. Washington's offense is just as explosive ranking higher than Stanford in total passing and rushing yards. It's hard to get a read on any one of these teams since they really only have one significant victory in their pockets going into this game. This game falls under the "Big Game" category so I would pass but I think Stanford wins by a touchdown. Pass unless you can get it at -6.5.

The Picks:


Maryland +16.5
Kansas St. +15.5
Tennessee (first half) +6
TCU +9.5
WVU +28.5
LSU (-354)
ASU (-231)
Nebraska (-331)

4 Team Teaser:
Texas Tech -3.5
Michigan -6
Miami +6.5
Clemson -1

4 Team Teaser with Over Unders:
South Carolina -8
Vandy/Missouri Over 43
Florida/Arkansas Under 56
ASU/Notre Dame Over 49.5







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Documented Results as of May 11, 2015