Hi all. I owe you two post mortems for the weekend and let me warn you now. They aren't pretty.
On Saturday as you know I went 6-5 and that was helped with a hockey and a baseball win plus some 1st quarter and 2nd half bets. I don't normally like to hedge with these types of bets since you could easily get into a deeper hole then you already are but I knew if I kept my betting amount the same (.60) I wouldn't get hurt too much.
Here is a quick review of my predictions and bets on Saturday which I'm dubbing as Upset Saturday Part Deux.
I was right about the value of the 14 points UCF was getting but wrong about Louisville winning the game. Top 10 upset number 1.
Wrong about TCU and their value at 7.5 but was right about the under.
Right about Vandy and it being a close game.
Right about the TT/ WVU game going over.
Wrong about SC. Top 10 upset number 2.
Wrong about Florida...I'm a homer what do you want?
Right about N. Illinois.
Wrong about UCLA
Right about Ohio St. They covered in a 4 team teaser.
Wrong about Texas AM. Top 10 upset number 3.
Wrong about Oklahoma.
The only one right about ASU.
Wrong about LSU. Top 10 upset number 4.
Right about Baylor covering.
Right about Bama
Wrong about Clemson. Top 10 upset but not counting since both teams were in the top 10. Boy did FSU look good!
Right about Wisconsin.
UNLV Fresno did not go over.
The picks: (4-3)(57%)
UCF first half UCF and under won. (Friday)
First 4-team teaser lost thanks to Louisville.
Second 4 team teaser won.
7 point teaser lost. That's the last time I take someone else's advice about a crappy team (Wyoming).
SC lost to Tennessee.
NHL parlay won.
Red Sox won...whoo hoo!
The hedges: (3-2)(60%)
4-team teaser lost
3 team parlay lost
1st quarter over in Baylor/Iowa St won
4 team teaser won
2nd half over of FSU/Clemson won
All for a 7-5 (58%) record.
If I took out the hedges I would have finished at 4-3.
So the hedges only gave me 1% point. Clearly not worth it since hese bets were from the hip, without a lot of thought put into them, and under stress. Not a good recipe. Next time I will look for more 1st quarter and first half lines
My only other thought is that for a week were 4 top 10 teams lost I can only be happy that the damage wasn't worse. I've had weekends like the last two Saturdays where the damage was a lot worse because of not following the one pick is not better than any other rule (http://letsget60.blogspot.com/2013/10/is-one-bet-better-than-another.html) and not putting the same team in more than one teaser. Just imagine if I put Texas AM or LSU in more than one teaser. Technically I put LSU in a teaser and a parlay. They pushed in the teaser but it contained Texas AM so it was a loser regardless.
The NFL was not kind to me either. I went 5-6 thanks to Denver blowing it at Indy. I broke one of the above rules and put Denver in two bets; a parlay and a teaser. I also broke the rule about betting on a game that had too much drama around it. Manning going back to Indy in prime time was just too much drama even for "professionals". I should have laid off all together.
The picks: (0-3)
Bears ML: Bears cannot play defense. I can blame the fact that Cutler got knocked out in the first half but the Bears could have stopped Washington many times including the late TD. I was wrong about the Bears.
Browns (+10): Wrong about Cleveland. Again this is the last time I take someone else's advice on a crappy team. I must have been out of my mind to bet against GB at home. This should have been a pass for me.
Cowboys Eagles over (48.5) teased with the Ravens: For the first time this year these teams decided to play defense. The Cowboys were giving up 25.3 points per game and the Eagles 29.8. How all of a sudden they only score 20 points combined is beyond me.
3 team parlay:
KC to win
SF to win
Denver to win
The Hedges: (3-0)
Ravens and the over in the second half won.
Jets/Pats over in the 2nd half won
Cowboys 2nd half won.
So right here I'm 3-3 with just needing Denver to win...so what do I do? Pile on of course.
More Hedges: (2-1) (66%)
KC 2nd half lost
Ravens 2nd half win
GB/Browns over 2nd half win
So now I'm 5-4 with just needing Denver to win.
Here comes the rookie mistake. I tease up Denver with the over. Destroying any chance of a 50% day. Of course the inevitable happens Denver loses and I go 5-6. (45.5%)
Don't put the same team in more than one bet. And do not bet drama games!
All in all for the weekend I went 12-11 (52%) This is flat out unacceptable and I think I know why I can't push through, but more on this later...
Win 2019 Heisman Trophy - Jalen Hurts +650
Win 2019 Heisman Trophy - Tua Tagovailoa +500
Win 2019 Heisman Trophy - Trevor Lawrence +350
Alabama 11 wins OVER
Baylor 7 wins OVER
Florida 9 wins OVER
Georgia 10.5 wins OVER
Illinois 3.5 wins OVER
LSU 8.5 wins OVER
Michigan 9.5 wins OVER
Notre Dame 9.5 wins OVER
Ohio St 10 wins OVER
Nebraska 8 wins OVER
Oregon 8.5 wins OVER
Sparty 7 wins OVER
Utah 8.5 wins OVER
Reach AFC Conference Final - Kansas City Chiefs +160
Reach AFC Conference Final - Jacksonville Jaguars +625
Reach NFC Conference Final - New Orleans Saints +215
Reach NFC Conference Final - Chicago Bears +365
Cleveland Browns win AFC North +120
Jacksonville Jaguars win AFC South +350
Los Angeles Chargers win AFC West +280
Philadelphia Eagles win NFC East +105
Chicago Bears win NFC North +175
Carolina Panthers win NFC South +775
Seattle Seahawks win NFC West +280
CHI regular season wins over 9½ +105
CLE regular season wins over 9 -130
DAL regular season wins over 8½ -130
GB regular season wins over 9½ +105
JAX regular season wins over 8 -115
KC regular season wins over 10½ -115
LAR regular season wins over 10½ -105
NOR regular season wins over 10½ +105
PIT regular season wins under 8½ +120
SEA regular season wins over 8½ -115
New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl +975