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Friday, October 25, 2013

Today's Line - Saturday's Picks

Hi sports fans we have some juicy games tomorrow so let's get right to it...


UCF (-24) at home vs. Connecticut: Well we all know what happened last time UCF played. This week should be no different. The Knights will be ridding high whereas Connecticut will still be looking for their first win. They will have to wait until next week. I think the line is a bit inflated so UCF goes into a 4 team teaser.

Vandy @ Texas AM (-17)  over/under (69): Both teams are literally hurting at QB. While the Aggies are smarting from a loss late in the game to Auburn, Vandy is coming off a huge win beating Georgia last week. I'd be interested in the 1Q and 1st half line because I see Vandy coming out a bit flat and AM taking out some frustrations. Vandy catches up though in the 2nd half turning this game into a shootout. Potential teaser here with AM and the over.

Boston College (+6.5) @ North Carolina: I've been on BC all season and I'm not going to stop now. The line opened at +9.5 and moved down all week. This tells me the sharps got on BC early and the public followed. I missed the boat getting it at +9.5 BC is 4-2 ATS and a much better team then 3-3 with losses to FSU and Clemson (both covering). NC had trouble stopping the run last week when they lost to Miami, as their run defense ranks 102 in the nation. Guess what BC does best...run the ball averaging 172 yards a game. Look for BC to give NC a heavy dose of run plays to wear them down in the 2nd half. Take the points but you won't need them BC wins this game straight up.

Duke @ Virgina Tech (-13.5): Duke has come along way, they are clearly no longer the ACC's doormat. However they still can't compete with the big boys. VT is playing very well and look to be on a collision course with FSU, providing they get past Miami. The double digit spread does give me pause but VT in a 4 team teaser is money.

Michigan St @ Illinois (+9.5): I'm not a believer in Sparty this year. Their offense sputters and the only quality opponent they've played (Notre Dame) they lost to. Illinois on the other hand can flat out score. The game against Wisconsin didn't get ugly until the 2nd half as Illinois traded body blows with Wisky for two quarters. This team can hang with anyone for at least a half. The line opened at 11 and finally settled at 9.5, this tells me that the sharps and the public believe Illinois can cover. I'm more interested in the 1Q and 1H lines.

FSU (-32) @ NC St: FSU is coming off its most impressive win of the season and if they run the table a lot of people believe they will head to the BCS title game over an undefeated Oregon team. I tend to agree since their schedule is a bit better with Clemson, Miami, and Florida. The line opened at 28.5 and soared to 32. This tells me the sharps and the squares were very impressed as am I with FSU. Normally I wouldn't touch this spread but 32 is probably safe for two reasons One FSU knows that it needs to do everything it can to impress the computers and that means run up the score, secondly NC St beat them last year so they will have revenge on their minds. This will be a first for me but I'm laying the 32.

Clemson (-16.5) @ Maryland: The other side of that FSU victory is Clemson who still has real shot at making a BCS bowl and taking care of business on the road against a struggling Maryland team is the first step. Clemson my come out a little flat but the talent is just too much for a banged up Terp team. Clemson is going into a 4 team teaser.

Tennessee @ Alabama (-28): Here we go again. Alabama a 4 touchdown favorite against an SEC team. Tennessee is coming off a huge win against SC but I think they will be ready to play against "that team in red". Here is a game where the 1Q and 1H lines might be a good play. I think Tennessee has turned the corner and will be ready to play whereas Bama will wait until the 2nd half to put the Vols away.

Texas Tech @ Oklahoma (-6.5) Over/Under (59): Texas Tech is coming into Norman riding an undefeated record while Oklahoma looked hungover from the beating they took two weeks ago from Texas. One thing is for sure there is going to be a lot of scoring in this game. Oklahoma's defense hasn't been the same since they lost their starting MLB and we all know TT can score. I like the over.

Baylor (-34.5) @ Kansas: Did I mention how fast Baylor is? Here is another big spread I like. Kansas played well last week and got the game into the fourth quarter against Oklahoma but I don't see that happening here. Baylor's offense can run circles around the Sooners plus Kansas will probably come out flat after losing last week. Baylor has too much firepower and loves to pour it on. I see them scoring 70 and Kansas scoring maybe twice. Lay the points. I'm also looking into 1Q and 1H lines for this game as well.

Texas (+2.5) @ TCU: Did you know that Texas is 3-0 in the Big 12? They are also 1-0 ATS as a dog.  TCU is 1-2 ATS as a home favorite. There is value here folks. TCU is a mess on offense and Texas is feeling pretty good about themselves coming off a bye after a beat down of Oklahoma. Texas continues it's unprecedented run in the Big-12 by winning straight up.

Penn St @ Ohio St (-16.5) Over/Under (55): Penn St is coming off a bye after an epic battle with Michigan in 4 overtimes. While Ohio St beat an Iowa team that just wouldn't give up. Both teams will be ready. Even though Penn St's defense will throw a lot of looks at Braxton Miller, Meyer makes some nice 2nd half adjustments to turn this game into a shootout. I love the over here because I see this game coming down to the wire with a very good chance of overtime.

Fresno St (-7.5) @ San Diego St: Fresno is taking their undefeated record on the road to Qualcomm Stadium but with a 1-5 record ATS. All this tells me is that the bookies are just overvaluing this team a bit too much. That is evident here since the line opened at 9.5 and has been bet down to 7.5. This is the first week I'm going to back them however I will look into buying a half a point to get it within a TD. San Diego St won't be able to keep up with the 4th best passing team.

Cal @ Washington (-27.5): The gift that keeps on giving...Cal football. Granted this spread is a bit high for me but Washington needs something good to happen so they can get back on track and Cal is just what the doctor ordered. Husky stadium will be rocking and the Huskies will show no mercy on a team that just can't compete with the Pac-12. Again lay the points, you won't be disappointed.

CSU (-2.5) @ Hawaii: Here is where I make my money back on CSU. Hawaii is gawd-awful at 0-6 and ranked at the bottom in the NCAA in rushing yards, points for, and points against. Now CSU is certainly no powerhouse but with Boise St and Utah St still on their schedule they could get to the top of MWC East division and play Fresno in the MWC championship. I understand that its a road trip to Hawaii but even with the potential jet lag and altitude adjustment I see CSU covering easy.

Check back tomorrow before the early games for my 1Q and 1H picks.

Good luck all!
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