Magic Number to 55% - 9
Magic Number to 60% - 307
Cash Balance Since Starting This Blog: $6.60
Cash Balance Today - $6.02
Bonus Cash - $7.93
|Last 90 Days
Not much can be said for a 2-4 night except I was one win short of 50%. Two of the four loses, Colorado not covering and Atlanta losing at home I can live with. Not hitting the under in the Raptors\Memphis game is my fault. I should have done a little more research. If I had I would have discovered that through Memphis' 7 games the over has hit 4 times and that they are ranked 15th in points against. They are also 1-7 ATS by the way. Clearly their defense is not what it was last year. Had I known this I probably would have laid off. The last one, Penguins losing at home to one of the worst teams on a back-to-back I cannot explain; but would bet it 100 times out of a 100. Variance showed up in this one I guess.
I also learned that betting money lines in the NBA is not worth it. I'm becoming too focused on winning percentages to where it's scaring me to bet the spread. The secondary goal of getting to 60% is too make money, however if I keep betting money lines I'll have to get well over 70%. Not to mention the two wins I had last night on the money line also covered. It wouldn't have changed my record but my bankroll wouldn't have taken such a hit.
Speaking of bankroll; I'm making a change. As some of you know sportsplays.com gives you bonus cash for watching advertisements and betting 7 days in a row. This bonus cash can only be converted into real cash by winning a bet with it, but you only get what you win. For example if I bet $1.00 of my bonus cash and win I only receive $.90. Since its free money I can't complain. So I decided to start using this cash as my bankroll for two reasons. It's free money and it's almost at an endless supply. I'm still going to follow the 5% rule after this exception which I screwed up on. My first pick of today is a teaser at -140. I meant to bet $1.40 of my bonus cash to win $1.00 but I mistakenly bet $1.40 of my bankroll.
From here on out 5% of my bonus cash until it runs dry. Then I'll move to my bankroll following the 5% rule as well.
Okay enough with the bullshit...here are the picks:
Colts 1Q (-119) @ Titans: The Colts were completely knocked out of their last game with the Rams after the first quarter. Look for them to play a much different first quarter this week as they look to bounce back from a loss. Anybody remember what happened in their last game after a loss? I'll give you a hint...the QB wears orange.
2 team teaser:
Georgia Tech @ Clemson (-4) OVER (52): Clemson always seems to struggle with GT. GT beat them last year in Atlanta and before 2010 beat them 4 straight. This year's Clemson is different, they have been blowing out teams this year and they still have their eye on a BCS bowl since FSU is more than likely going to the BCS championship game. I also see a lot of scoring in this game since GT has gotten a pretty good passing attack to go along with their running game but struggle against the pass. Clemson is coming off a bye and have the athleticism to defend the option. It will be close but Clemson wins by a TD in the end. Incidentally I like GT getting +3 as a 1Q line, again this game will be close in the first half.
Rockets @ Knicks 1Q UNDER (51.5): Both teams played last night on the road; the Knicks had to come from behind to win and Houston lost in OT. I see both teams coming out a bit flat and tired which should equal a lot of missed shots.
Arizona (-3) @ SD State: This spread doesn't make any sense to me. I feel it should be about 5 or 6. I understand Zona is on the road but SD State has lost three starters including one to the NBA. That's over 30 points and 21 rebounds per game. Arizona is well coached and will not take this game lightly. This may be close in the first half but I see the Cats pulling away and winning by 10 by the end of regulation.
4 team teaser:
William & Marry @ Wichita State (-7): I'm not taking W&M lightly and either should you. Brandin Britt is a legit scoring threat and could win POY in the Colonial Athletic Conference. But after Britt the talent level drops off immensely. We all know who the Shockers are and what they are capable of returning 4 starters from last years Final Four team. Lastly, Wichita State has won by an average of 22.1 points during a 19-game run at home against non-conference opponents dating to March 2011.
UTSA @ Houston (-4): UTSA is a pretty bad team. They lost three starters from a 10-22 team. Houston on the other hand is legit with great interior scoring and great outside shooting. Look for Houston to coast at home.
Austin Peay @ Memphis (-12): Memphis' first game of the season is tonight. They put their 16th ranking in the country on the line against Governors. The Tigers senior laden team should have no problem with a Austin Peay team that won only 8 games last year. Memphis has dominated the series wining four straight including last Decembers drubbing 83-65 last December to extend its win streak in the series to seven.
Northwestern @ Stanford OVER (147): Both teams average over 70 points a game and both teams love to shoot the ball. I'm banking on another game with a lot of free throws as both teams shoot over 70% and get to the line a combined 84 times.
Blue Jackets @ Bruins (-175): This game fits the system. the Blue Jackets have been atrocious lately going 4-5 in their last 10 with a -6 differential. The Bruins on the other hand are playing good hockey right now sporting a 3 game winning streak and look to eclipse a very vulnerable Lighting team. the Bruins take care of business at home.
Ducks (-105) @ Lighting: Normally I wouldn't bet this game since the Ducks are on the road but I don't see how Tampa is going to adjust losing Stamkos. This guy was their team leading them in points, goals, and assists. It's going to take them a few games to figure it out. The Ducks who aren't too shabby themselves take advantage.
Keep An Eye On:
The Lowest Under: ATS: (6-3-1)
Memphis cant play defense. Only two games tonight. No play.
Fading Houston: ATS: (3-5-1)
Giving 1.5 on the road at MSG. I can't trust the Knicks in this spot without Chandler. But this is looking more and more promising.
Shading New Orleans: ATS (3-6)
Maybe we need to start fading these guys as they lost to the winless Jazz.
Shading Detroit: ATS (3-4)
They travel to Sac town on Friday to face the Kings which are 0-5-1 ATS.
Good Luck Everyone!