NO I say.
I've been on these "streaks" before and what always happens is that the next day I usually don't do so good. So today I'm going to be very conservative and play only the games I'm really really confident about. This is a lesson I have learned over that years mainly playing poker and if you've read my previous posts I've talked about variance before. You can't stay hot forever...but what you can do is make strong, disciplined, educated picks.
I also wanted to address the fact that I'm betting a lot of money lines lately. The reason for this is two-fold one, I'm more interested in wins then cash, secondly risk management. I'f you have read any of this blog you know I'm going for wins not cash. Most handicappers and sports bettors will scoff at this and that's fine, but in my opinion betting money lines is a better investment than dealing with the spread. All I have to do is pick a winner. Yes I maybe laying as much as 6-1 but as long as I stay within my bankroll and I pick winners on a consistent basis, I won't go broke making a profit.
Lastly I want to bring attention to the Cal Poly/Longbeach St game. Even though Longbeach St. had only one more win then Cal Poly I noticed that the 49ers had a significant rebounding advantage over the Mustangs. Looking at the stats Longbeach only had 2 more rebounds than Cal Poly but 8 more defensive rebounds limiting the number second chance opportunities for the Mustangs.
|Last 90 Days||297||236||6||55.7%|
Okay enough BS...lets get 60!
SMU (-384) @ Temple: SMU is legit Temple is awful.
Minnesota (-167) @ Northwestern: Minnesota is just too athletic for Northwestern to handle. Two stats jump out at me here. Minnesota averages 74 PPG and has 14 assists per game. Northwestern averages 61 PPG and 11 assists per game. The top three scorers for both teams are guards so the these two stats tells me that the Minnesota's guard play is a bit better then Northwestern's and that should be the difference in the ball game.
Nebraska @ Michigan St (-13.5): Usually big spreads scare me off but this is prime for the taking. Nebraska is not very good ranking in the bottom half in the major offensive categories. They are coming in on a two game win streak but those two wins were against Northwestern and Illinois. Today they face possibly the best team in the Big 10 when at full strength. MSU has been a little inconsistent but of their last three loses, two of them came against strong opponents, Michigan and Wisconsin. Today they get a team at home that is inferior with nothing to look ahead to. I see a focused Sparty team that will blow the doors off Nebraska.
Good Luck All!
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